The Numbers Game: Population Predictions Versus Realities in Israel
While researching for my final project, I came across an article depicting the concern over decreasing population within the Jewish Quarter. Since Jewish occupation of both East Jerusalem and the West Bank in 1967, a year as we discussed in class that is incredibly significant in regards to the Israel-Palestine conflict, they have attempted to grow the Jewish presence in Jerusalem in order to "impede Palestinian natural growth and nudge Palestinians to depart" (Friesel 5). However, Israel has failed to meet their goals for Jewish population growth in the Old City, and their majority share has began to shrink. The ratio of Jews to Palestinians has gone from "74 Jewish to 26 Palestinian residents in 1967 to a 62:38 ratio in 2016" (Friesel 5).
As the article explains, the cause for this shrink is a two-way street; Israel has failed to attract more Jewish citizens, but Jewish citizens were also moving out of Jerusalem to other cities in Israel. Trumping these causes for the Jew's decline in Jerusalem is the growth of the Palestinian community, which has "outpaced that of the Jewish population" (Friesel 5). Ze'ev Elkin, a candidate in the 2018 mayoral race for Jerusalem, claimed that by 2023 the Jewish population may officially get overcome by the Arabs. According to a news article published in August of 2022, in Israel as a whole, Jewish people became a 47% minority in the country. This is taking into consideration the amount of both Arab-Palestinians and the general non-Jewish population. There are 7.45 million Jews and 7.53 million Arab-Israelis in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. There was no data specifically pertaining to Jerusalem.
Shurafa, Wafaa, and Samy Magdy. “More than 29,000 Palestinians Have Been Killed in Gaza since War’s Start, Health Ministry Says.” PBS, Public Broadcasting Service, 19 Feb. 2024, www.pbs.org/newshour/world/more-than-29000-palestinians-have-been-killed-in-gaza-since-wars-start-health-ministry-says#:~:text=RAFAH%2C%20Gaza%20Strip%20(AP),of%20the%20Israeli%2DPalestinian%20conflict.
Nice post about how demographics are often used in the conflict (in a variety of different ways; population numbers have been used by both Palestinians and Israelis—and pre-nation-state versions of these identities—to make arguments since the 19th century). The numbers/ratios you present as being about the Old City of Jerusalem sound more likely to be about the entire of city of Jerusalem (i.e. the Old City, East Jerusalem and West Jerusalem). In the Old City, the majority of the population is Muslim with much smaller Jewish and Christian populations.
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